First FOMC After Powell: How to Trade & Journal the June 2026 Fed Decision

A New Chair, A Live Market

For the first time since 2018, the Federal Reserve is making a rate decision without Jerome Powell at the table. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22, 2026, after a 55-45 Senate confirmation, and the June 16-17 meeting is his debut. The decision and updated projections drop at 2:00 PM ET on June 17 (early evening for European desks), followed by Warsh's first press conference at 2:30 PM ET.

Markets do not love uncertainty about who is steering policy. A new Chair, a first press conference, and a market that has stopped trusting the old rate path is exactly the kind of setup that produces violent, two-way moves. If you trade USD pairs, indices, gold, or anything rate-sensitive, this is a session to respect, not gamble on.

This is a preview, not a prediction. The point here is to walk in prepared and walk out with a journal entry worth reading later.

What's Actually on the Table

The rate itself is the least interesting part. The target range sits at 3.50% to 3.75%, and the market prices a hold at roughly 97% odds (CME FedWatch). A no-change decision is almost fully baked in, which means the surprise will not come from the headline number.

The move comes from everything around it:

• The dot plot (SEP). The Summary of Economic Projections shows where each policymaker expects rates to go. The Fed's last set of dots implied a cut still to come. The market has since drifted the other way, toward fewer cuts or even a hike. If the new dots erase that cut, that gap closes fast and the dollar reprices.
• Warsh's tone. His first press conference sets the narrative for months. Warsh served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 and has spent years criticizing quantitative easing and a bloated balance sheet. That history puts him toward the hawkish end. Traders will be listening for whether he confirms that reputation or softens it.
• The inflation backdrop. Inflation is running near 4.2%, kept sticky by higher oil prices tied to the Iran conflict. That removes most of the case for an imminent cut and raises the odds the Fed drops its easing language entirely.

For context: the May meeting held rates but split 8-4, the widest dissent since 1992. A divided committee under a brand-new Chair is not a recipe for a quiet statement.

The Three Things That Will Move Markets

When the statement hits at 2:00 PM ET, the algorithms read three things before any human does:

1. Did the dot plot keep or kill the projected cut? Killing it is hawkish and dollar-positive. Keeping it is dovish and risk-positive.
2. Did the statement drop "easing" or "accommodative" language? Removing it signals the cutting cycle is over and a hike is back on the table for late 2026.
3. What does Warsh actually say at 2:30? The statement sets the level; the press conference sets the trend. Expect the first sharp move on the release and a second, often opposite, move once Warsh starts taking questions.

The classic FOMC trap is the head-fake: price spikes one direction on the statement, then fully reverses during the press conference. Traders who got married to the first candle give it all back on the second.

How Volatile Could It Get

Expect spreads to widen and liquidity to thin out in the minutes around 2:00 PM ET. Stops get hunted on both sides before a real direction emerges. This is normal for a Fed day and it is worse when a new Chair is speaking for the first time.

The instruments most exposed:

• USD pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY) react first and hardest.
• Gold (XAU/USD) swings on the real-yield repricing.
• US indices (US100, US30, SPX500) often whipsaw through the press conference before settling.

If you want a deeper look at how session timing changes your odds, our breakdown of the best trading hours for day traders covers why the NY afternoon around a Fed release is one of the least forgiving windows on the calendar.

How to Trade It Without Blowing Up

You do not need a position on at 2:00 PM ET to make money this week. Most consistent traders treat the release itself as something to survive, then trade the cleaner move that develops afterward.

A few rules that hold up on Fed days:

• Decide your plan before 2:00 PM ET. "I will not trade the spike" is a valid, professional plan. So is "I wait for the press conference to pick a direction and trade the continuation." What kills accounts is deciding mid-candle.
• Size down. The range on a Fed day can be several times a normal day. Same dollar risk means a much wider stop and a much smaller position. If you would normally risk 1%, the move is not to risk 2% because "it's a big day."
• Respect the spread. Entering market orders into a widened spread is how you pay 8 pips to get filled on a 1-pip idea.
• Know the schedule cold. Set the event on your calendar so it never surprises you. Our economic calendar flags the exact timing of high-impact releases like this one.

How to Journal the Fed Decision

This is where a single news event turns into long-term data. Most traders remember "FOMC was crazy" and learn nothing. A journaled trader walks away with a repeatable read on how they behave under pressure.

Log every Fed-day trade with the context attached, not just the entry and exit:

• Tag the catalyst. Mark the trade as a news/FOMC trade so you can filter it later. Over a year you will see whether your news trades actually make money or quietly bleed.
• Record your plan vs. what you did. Did you follow the plan you wrote at 1:55 PM, or did the first spike pull you in? That gap is the single most useful thing you can track on event days.
• Note the emotion. "Chased the spike," "revenge-traded the reversal," "hesitated and missed the clean move." These tags are gold when you review.
• Attach the chart. A screenshot of the 5-minute around the release tells you more in six months than any number will.

Once you have a few Fed days logged, the patterns surface on their own. Maybe your news trades have a 35% win rate and you should simply sit them out. Maybe you are excellent on the post-conference continuation and terrible on the initial spike. That is an edge you can only find in your own data, and it is exactly what the AI Coach is built to surface for you.

For Prop Firm Traders: Protect the Account First

If you are inside an FTMO, FundedNext, TopStep, or similar challenge, a Fed day is a daily-drawdown landmine. One oversized news trade can breach your daily loss limit before you have even read the statement.

Many prop firms restrict or outright ban trading around high-impact news, so check your firm's rules before the release. A blown account from a news violation is the most avoidable failure there is. If you track your challenge inside the journal, your daily-loss headroom is right in front of you, and our guide on spotting revenge trading in your journal covers the exact behavior that turns one bad Fed trade into a blown account. For a full walkthrough, see how to journal a prop firm challenge without tripping a rule.

After the Dust Settles: Review the Tape

The real work happens after the close. Once the volatility fades, go back through your Fed-day trades while the context is fresh:

• Did price respect the levels you marked before the release?
• Was your read on Warsh's tone correct, and did you trade in line with it?
• Which of your decisions came from your plan, and which came from your gut?

Write it down the same evening. The market will hand you another FOMC in roughly six weeks, and the only thing that makes the next one easier is an honest record of this one. Avoiding the same mistakes twice is most of what separates funded traders from the rest, a theme we dig into in common trading mistakes and how to fix them.

Key Takeaway

Warsh's first FOMC is a genuinely big event, but your job is small and specific: protect your capital through the chaos, trade only the setups you planned, and journal the whole thing honestly. The decision is out of your hands. How you behave around it is not, and that behavior is what your journal is built to measure.

Ready to track your next Fed day properly? Start journaling free or try the live demo first. No credit card, works with any broker.